Estimación de la demanda turística de un espacio natural mediante un modelo gravitacional

Abstract

In this work, a gravity model with which to estimate the tourism demand of a certain natural area is proposed. The parameters required to calibrate this model come from the relation made between the total number of visitors accounted in a given year
in that place, and the population and distance from nearby towns. Such a model may be useful for estimating the number of people per
year who can visit a place with similar characteristics to the one studied, therefore saving expensive job to perform and process field
surveys. The estimation can be improved by introducing inherent attributes of the natural area under consideration, and travel costs,
among other variables. Alternatively, when knowing the actual number of visitors in a given year, disaggregated by regions of origin, the
estimate for other years could be done by relating these values with certain data at regional level from the Survey of Tourist Movements
of the Spanish (Familitur).

Keywords:

demanda/atracción turística, número de visitantes, área de influencia, modelo gravitacional, encuesta Familitur

References

Baldwin, R.,Taglioni, D. (2006). Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations. NBER.Working Paper 12516.

Bedimo-Rung, A.L., Mowen, A.J., Cohen, D.A. (2005). The significance of parks to physical activity and public health: a conceptual model. American Journal of Preventive Medicine nº 28, pp. 159-168.

Bernath, K., Roschewitz, A. (2008). Recreational benefits of urban forests: Explaining visitors’ willingness to pay in the context of the theory of planned behavior. Journal of Environmental Management Nº 89 (3), pp. 155–166.

Brown, G., Raymond, C. (2007). The relationship between place attachment and landscape values: Toward mapping place attachment. Applied Geography nº 27(2), pp. 89–111.

Castillo, M.E., Sayadi, S., Ceña, F. (2008). El valor del uso recreativo del Parque Natural Sierrade María-Los Velez (Almería). Economía Agraria y Recursos Naturalesnº 8(2), pp. 49-72.

CLM (2011). Hayedo de Tejera Negra (Parque Natural de la Sierra Norte de Guadalajara). Folleto informativo. Red de Áreas Protegidas de CastillaLa Mancha. http://agricultura.jccm.es/parques/forms/parqf001.php.

De la Mata, T., Llano, C. (2010). Modelo gravitatorio y turismo: una aplicación al comercio interior del sector turismo en España. Revista de Estudios Regionalesnº 89, pp. 211-240.

Egger, P. (2005). Alternative Techniques for Estimation of Cross-Section Gravity Models. Review of International Economicsnº13(5), pp. 881–891.

IET (2009). Encuesta de Movimientos Turísticos de los Españoles (Familitur), Informe anual 2009. Instituto de Estudios Turísticos, Ministerio de Industria, Turismo y Comercio.

Imm Ng, S., Anne Lee, S., Soutar, G.N. (2007). Tourists’ intention to visit a country: The impact of cultural distance. Tourism Management nº28, pp. 1497–1506.

INE (2015). Revisión del Padrón municipal 2009. Instituto Nacional de Estadística. http://www.ine.es/jaxi/menu.do?type=pcaxis&file=pcaxis&path=%2Ft20%2Fe245%2Fp05%2F%2Fa2009.

Isard, W. (1954). Location Theory and International and Interregional Trade.Quarterly Journal of Economic nº 68.

Khadaroo, J., Seetanah, B. (2008). The role of transport infrastructure in international tourism development: A gravity model approach. Tourism Management nº 29, pp. 831–840.

Korpela, K.M., Ylén, M., Tyrväinen, L., Silvennoinen, H. (2008). Determinants of restorative experiences in everyday favorite places. Health & Place nº 14(4), pp. 636–652.

López-Mosquera, N., Sánchez, M. (2011). Influencia de los valores personales y de los atributos de un espacio natural en la decisión de su uso. Revista Española de Estudios Agrosociales y Pesqueros nº229, pp. 117-144.

Muñoz, A., Grande, F., Núñez-Cacho, P. (1994). Modelos de gravitación en el contexto turístico. IV Congreso de Economía Regional de Castilla y León, Burgos, 1994.

Neuvonen, M.,Sievänen, T., Tönnes, S., Koskela, T. (2007). Access to green areas and the frequency of visits – A case study in Helsinki. Urban Forestry & Urban Greeningnº 6 (4), pp. 235–247.

Schipperijn, J., Ekholm, O., Stigsdotter, U.K., Toftager, M., Bentsen, P., Kamper-Jørgensen, F.,Randrup, T.B. (2010). Factors influencing the use of green space: Results from a Danish national representative survey. Landscape and Urban Planningnº 95(3), pp. 130–137.

Stewart, J.Q. (1948). Demographic Gravitation: Evidence and Applications. Sociometrynº 11 (1-2) (February - May 1948), pp. 31-58.

Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the World Economy. Twentieth Century Fund, New York.

Weaver, P., Kaufman, T.J., Yoon, Y. (2001). A Market Segmentation Study Based on Benefits Sought by Visitors at Heritage Sites. Tourism Analysis nº 6 (3-4), pp. 213-222.

Witt, S.F., Witt, C.A. (1995). Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research. International Journal of Forecasting nº11, pp. 447-475.

Zipf, G.K. (1946). The P1·P2/D Hypothesis: On the Intercity Movement of Persons. American Sociological Reviewnº 11, December, pp. 677.