Oportunidad y conveniencia de aplicar la prospectiva al sector turismo

Abstract

Since its origins, tourism planning has felt the need to foresee the future in order to limit uncertainty when undertaking long-range actions and investments. Nevertheless, tourism planners have historically favoured the use of quantitative instead of qualitative tools when foreseeing the future. This paper explores the reasons for planners’ favouritism toward forecasting methods and it argues for the opportunity and convenience of applying foresight methods in the tourism sector. Under these premises, foresight is defined and characterised, showing both its advantages and disadvantages. Next, a synthesis of several foresight exercises recently undertaken in the Spanish tourism sector is presented, showing foresight’s potential added value to the planning process. Finally, the author discusses key evidences of foresight’s difficulties among tourism planners and suggests a set of recommendations to incorporate successfully foresight methods in the tourism planning realm. 

Keywords:

Future studies, foresight, scenario design, tourism planning

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